BOOM as at 15th November 2020

BOOM BOOM — STOCKS RISE STRONGLY

From last Sunday’s editorial  — “BOOM now expects foreign stock markets and property markets to move ever upwards from here if the US Dollar continues to fall”.

And, in regard to record low official interest rates set by the central bank of Australia —
BOOM doubts if it will achieve anything of significance in the economy except boost asset prices“.

The Australian stock market moved up by 3.35% last week. The Japanese market surged by 4.36%. The Indonesian market went up by 3.6 %. The Malaysian market rose 3.25%. The Singaporean market rose by 5.15%.  The Indian Nifty Index went up 3.72 %. The German market rallied 4.78 %. The French market skyrocketed up by 8.45 %. The UK market surged 6.5 %. The Italian market jumped 6.2 %.

BOOM wrote about the huge potential of the Russian economy on the 1st November. Since then, the Russian stock index, the MOEX, has turned on a dime and risen by 18 %. At its peak, it had risen by over 20 % in just 2 weeks.

COLLAPSING INFLUENZA — STUNNING FIGURES

Last week, BOOM looked at the huge collapse of Influenza cases in Australia in 2020 compared to previous years. BOOM cannot explain this — it is a mystery. And it is a BIG  COLLAPSE — the influenza viruses as a group appear to have almost disappeared in Australia’s 2020 winter.

Since then, it has been interesting to examine the numbers from many nations. The WHO (World Health Organization) has excellent data and graphs concerning confirmed Influenza numbers worldwide, nation by nation, year by year. BOOM has looked at the 2020 southern hemisphere winter in Argentina, Australia and Chile — looking at similar episodes. The winter of 2017 was chosen as a comparison as there was a large worldwide influenza epidemic that year as measured by confirmed cases and deaths. Note that influenza epidemics hit nations annually at slightly different times throughout the winter — presumably because of differing climatic conditions.

In Argentina, in Week 24 of the 2017 winter, there were over 800 confirmed cases of Influenza.
In Argentina, in Week 24 of the 2020 winter, there was only ONE confirmed case of Influenza.

In Chile, in Week 25 of the 2017 winter, there were over 400 confirmed cases of Influenza.
In Chile, in Week 25 of the 2020 winter, there was only ONE confirmed case of Influenza.

In Australia, in Week 36 of the 2017 winter, there were over 900 confirmed cases of Influenza.
In Australia, in Week 36 of the 2020 winter, there were ZERO confirmed cases of Influenza.

From week 21 to week 36 this year in Chile there has been only ONE confirmed case of influenza. That period is 15 weeks long in winter — almost 4 months. 

From week 21 to the current week 45, there have been a total of just 4 confirmed cases of influenza. That 6 month period is usually called the annual “Flu Season” in Chile — the Temporada de Gripe — with usually many thousands of confirmed cases.

During that same period in Chile this year 2020, there have apparently been 522,879 confirmed “cases” of SARS CoV2 and apparently 14,588 deaths from the disease it is associated with Covid 19.

Has Covid somehow miraculously replaced Influenza worldwide?

Or ………… is this The Twilight Zone? Have we left Earth to find ourselves on another planet where major annual viral epidemics that routinely cause massive deaths and morbidities worldwide just disappear almost overnight?

We are entering the Northern Hemisphere winter now. So BOOM will watch closely as the winter progresses to see if Influenza has also gone on vacation in the Northern Hemisphere this year.

Link Global Influenza WHO:   https://www.who.int/influenza/gisrs_laboratory/updates/summaryreport_20201026/en/

MEANWHILE IN THE UK

Meanwhile in the UK, the official death numbers from all causes collected by Euromomo show that there are serious concerns regarding the decision to install another 1 month lockdown on the nation. The death numbers are in steady decline below baseline (average) in Wales, England and Northern Ireland. In Scotland, they are neither rising nor falling.

There is no evidence of any substantial increases in deaths at present from all causes in any of the four UK nations. WHERE is this fearful pandemic of death?

LINK Euromomo.EU:   https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/#z-scores-by-country

DEATHS FROM ALL CAUSES

Let’s look more closely at the Deaths from All Causes Data for all of Europe and the UK from Euromomo — the official keeper of such statistics in Copenhagen.

It is odd to see that some European nations don’t have any Excess Death surges in any winter — so this may mean that they don’t get Influenza.  WHY? is the big question.

It can’t be due to excellent vaccination coverage because the EU coverage rates are, in fact, disappointing as reported here —

  Influenza vaccination coverage remains low in many countries, and leads to severe disease, hospitalizations and premature deaths. 

Reference: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/seasonal-influenza-antiviral-use-2018.pdf

So — Go here  https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

Then Click on “Z Scores by country”.   Z Scores allow easy comparisons to be made between nations.

The Z Score Graphs reveal that the patterns of Excess Deaths from all causes differ markedly from nation to nation over the last 4 years.

It appears that there have been NO excess deaths from Covid in 2020 in the following nations on a Z Score analysis — NONE.

Austria, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Luxembourg, Malta, Norway, Slovenia (and maybe Northern Ireland).

Shock Horror — IT CANNOT BE TRUE SURELY?

What characteristics do all these nations share?  With the exception of Germany, the nations are all small and of little Geo-political consequence.

So which nations experienced a Big Surge in excess deaths in early 2020 — presumably from Covid 19?

Answer — Belgium, France, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK England, UK Scotland, UK Wales and (maybe) UK Northern Ireland.

How can these differences be explained when there is (presumably) a “Global Pandemic” of the “deadly” Covid 19 occurring? There is simply no explanation as far as BOOM can see.
And why is the UK going into full lockdown now for a month when the excess death numbers are currently falling below Baseline in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (baseline is the average number)?

And why did the UK government predict that in December, there may be 4,000 deaths per day from Covid 19? Do they know something we don’t? Or are they just plain wrong?

Read about that forecast here — https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8904617/UK-Governments-forecast-4-000-coronavirus-deaths-day-FIVE-TIMES-high.html

“This evidence does appear to indicate that the death models are already wrong and by quite a considerable margin.”

EXCELLENT ANALYSIS ON THE UK SITUATION:

CRUCIAL Viral Update: Critique of Data sending UK into Lockdown Meltdown
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0Z2rfsUbBs&feature=emb_logo

IS THIS THE FUTURE?

QUOTE:  Dr Josef Goebbels —  Minister of Propaganda of Nazi Germany from 1933 to 1945.

If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State“.

 George Orwell, Author of the dystopian books Animal Farm and 1984

In a time of universal deceit — telling the truth is a revolutionary act“.

TWO ERRORS — APOLOGY

There were two errors in last week’s editorial. BOOM must apologize — the proof reader missed them before publication. The Link to the Australian Influenza Surveillance Report did not function properly — because the Department of Health had updated the link overnight, unbeknownst to BOOM.  And the calculation of the ratio of current Covid deaths to Cases in the USA was incorrectly published as 0.1 % when it should have been 0.96 %. BOOM corrected these in the BOOM newspaper, blog and LinkedIn article as soon as it became apparent. BOOM apologizes profusely. The proof reader has been suitably chastised.

In economics, things work until they don’t. Until next week …………  Make your own conclusions, do your own research.  BOOM does not offer investment advice.
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EMAIL: gerry {at} boomfinanceandeconomics.com

Return to the BOOM Main Website –  BOOM Finance and Economics at  http://boomfinanceandeconomics.com/

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HOW MOST MONEY IS CREATED

BANKS CREATE FRESH NEW MONEY OUT OF THIN AIR (but they always need a Borrower to do so)

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A DEPOSIT
BANKS PURCHASE SECURITIES, THEY DON’T MAKE LOANS
BANKS DON’T TAKE DEPOSITS, THEY BORROW YOUR MONEY
Watch this short 15 minutes video and learn as Professor Richard Werner brilliantly explains how the banking system and financial sector really work.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EC0G7pY4wREhttp://

How is Most New Money Created ?

LOANS CREATE DEPOSITS — that is how almost all new money is created in the economy (by commercial banks making loans).

From the Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin Q1 2014    —
“Whenever a bank makes a loan, it simultaneously creates a matching deposit in the borrower’s bank account, thereby creating new money.“Most money in the modern economy is in the form of bank deposits, which are created by commercial banks themselves”.

Youtube Video —  https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2014/q1/money-in-the-modern-economy-an-introduction

and

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2014/q1/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy

Paper:  Money in the Modern Economy  PDF —  CLICK HERE

Quarterly Bulletins Indexhttp://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q1.aspx

Most economists are unaware of this and even ignore the banking & finance sectors in their econometric models.

On 25th April 2017, the central bank of Germany, the Bundesbank, released a statement on this matter —

“In terms of volume, the majority of the money supply is made up of book money, which is created through transactions between banks and domestic customers. Sight deposits are an example of book money: sight deposits are created when a bank settles transactions with a customer, ie it grants a credit, say, or purchases an asset and credits the corresponding amount to the customer’s bank account in return. This means that banks can create book money just by making an accounting entry: according to the Bundesbank’s economists, “this refutes a popular misconception that banks act simply as intermediaries at the time of lending – i.e. that banks can only grant credit using funds placed with them previously as deposits by other customers”. By the same token, excess central bank reserves are not a necessary precondition for a bank to grant credit (and thus create money).

”Reference: https://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/EN/Topics/2017/2017_04_25_how_money_is_created.html

The Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia’s central bank) has also contributed to the issue in a speech by Christopher Kent, the Assistant Governor on September 19th 2018.“…… the vast bulk of broad money consists of bank deposits”“Money can be created …….. when financial intermediaries make loans

“In the first instance, the process of money creation requires a willing borrower.” “It’s also worth emphasizing that the process of money creation is not the result of the actions of any single bank – rather, the banking system as a whole acts to create money.”
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Disclaimer:   All content is presented for educational and/or entertainment purposes only. Under no circumstances should it be mistaken for professional investment advice, nor is it at all intended to be taken as such. The commentary and other contents simply reflect the opinion of the authors alone on the current and future status of the markets and various economies. It is subject to error and change without notice.The presence of a link to a website does not indicate approval or endorsement of that web site or any services, products, or opinions that may be offered by them.

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MOLS Denmark

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