BOOM as at 27th September 2020

COVID DEATHS PER MILLION CONUNDRUM
ARE WE BEING LIED TO?

The politicians have worked hard at trying to convince us that Covid 19 is a “once in 100 year” special case epidemic and is a continuing threat that requires harsh measures. They have been assisted by the mainstream media in their Panic Now Fear Campaigns. Totalitarian policies have been implemented “for your own good” and we have seen police in vast numbers “protecting” us all from (presumably) a fate worse than death. Because Covid is (apparently) really, really horrible. It is worse than death, didn’t you know?

The problem is that the facts don’t stack up. Absolute Excess Death Numbers attributed to Covid 19 have been almost identical to excess death numbers in previous Influenza Virus epidemics in Europe (as recent as 2 years ago). Those influenza virus epidemics were not managed with masks, lockdowns, massive police actions, contact tracing or promises of instant, new vaccines. They just collapsed and went away — like all Flu epidemics have done repeatedly for many, many years. Covid 19 attributed death numbers in 24 European nations (including the UK) have also collapsed dramatically this year.

Check the graphs here — https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

The Euromomo graphs show that the excess death numbers in Europe and the UK peaked sharply in week 14 of 2020, the first week in April. Then they collapsed dramatically to around baseline death numbers by week 22 — the last week in May — (baseline is the normal average weekly death number). By then, there were no excess deaths occurring above the normal baseline in those nations as a group where over 400 million people live. And that has remained the case ever since with the exception of a very small increase in deaths above the baseline that occurred from week 29 – week 33 (the “dreaded second wave”?). Currently, the deaths per week number is below baseline and falling. There are NO excess deaths occurring in all of Europe and the UK.

Four months have passed since week 22 but the “scientific advisers” and the politicians refuse to acknowledge that  the epidemic is long gone. They have upped the ante and moved to even stricter police state actions as “case” numbers have gone up. So-called “case” numbers are just positive PCR tests which are to be expected if you do more testing. PCR tests, by the way, can detect long dead viral genetic fragments. Over 80 % of those people testing positive are not sick at all and 99% (at least) are at no risk whatsoever of death but we are all being subjected to increased Panic Now Fear campaigns.

Lockdowns have made no difference. We already know this by comparing death rates between nations and between regions inside nations. In Italy, for example, a study was done to compare the death numbers in many regions. This is a detailed study called — Patterns of COVID-19 Related Excess Mortality in the Municipalities of Northern Italy.

Link:  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.11.20097964v1.full.pdf

The authors of the study were mystified by the results. Death rates differed dramatically from region to region despite common health policies.

“Our study demonstrates that nearby municipalities within each region may show highly different mortality levels, despite being under common regional health policies, therefore further studies are necessary to analyze more in depth the local determinants of COVID-19 spread.”

We can also look at the Deaths Per Million population numbers from nation to nation. We are being told that the virus is the same virus everywhere so how can dramatic differences in absolute excess death numbers be explained? In Taiwan, there have been 0.3 deaths per million population attributed to Covid 19 — only 7 deaths in total (!). In San Marino, Italy, the death rate was 3,000 times higher. Covid deaths there occurred at the rate of  1,237 deaths per million population. Let’s repeat that for emphasis — the death rate in San Marino was 3,000 times higher than the death rate in Taiwan, presumably from the exact same virus. The Top 10 Covid 19 nations as measured by Deaths per Million have all had death numbers 2,000 times greater than Taiwan.

Check for yourself   https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The number in the Top 10 Nations range from 631 (USA) to 1,237 (San Marino). The Deaths per Million population number in Hong Kong is 14. Yet Hong Kong is the 4th most densely populated nation on Earth with 6,300 people per square kilometer and a total of 7.5 Million. Belgium is the Top western nation with 859 Deaths per Million. But Thailand has had extremely low death numbers — 0.8 per Million —  1,000 times lower than Belgium.

Oh — “the lockdowns are the explanation” say the true believers. But BOOM begs to differ. There is no way that mask use, lockdowns, police actions and public health measures could have made such significant difference to these numbers if we are dealing with the same virus and the same methods of spread. How could such measures result in 2,000 – 3,000 times less deaths from nation to nation?

Think about that while you consider these questions.

Are we are dealing with the exact same virus and the same methods of spread? And if not, are we being deliberately lied to? Are our government appointed “scientific advisers” competent or incompetent? Why do they not seem to consider the increased deaths caused by lockdown measures due to delayed diagnosis and treatment of cancers and heart disease? Why is the terminology of “cases” being used worldwide? Is this a deliberate obfuscation of the truth? And, if so, why is it so well organized? Why does the mainstream media in many different nations continue to slavishly use the exact same terminology? Are we actually dealing with different strains of the SARS CoV 2 virus in different locations? And are we dealing with malicious spread? Why is it that Iran and Russia are (clearly) having a second wave of combined “cases” and deaths while almost all other nations are not? Why does China have almost no new “cases” since late April (5 months)? And why has China had no new deaths attributed to Covid 19 since then either?

All of these questions need answers. But the mainstream media are unwilling to ask them. Our politicians are unwilling to answer them. They are even unwilling for these questions to be asked. Do they know something that we don’t? Are we being lied to? Over and over again?

There is an old joke about politicians. How can you tell if a politician is lying? Answer: His/Her lips are moving.

FINANCIAL MARKETS MAYHEM?

Some interesting behavior occured in stock markets, bond markets and commodities markets last week. The US stock market had some disturbingly bad days with large falls but, by the end of the week, buyers had mostly returned. The Doomers and the Gloomers came out in force to declare the end of the world as we know it. However, there was no rush to invest in the so-called “safe havens”. The US Government issued sovereign bond market rose not quite 1 % and the high quality corporate bond market fell by about 1% (in toto).

The Gold, Silver and Platinum markets did not show heavy buying. In fact, quite the opposite, the prices of these so called “precious safe haven metals” all fell. Platinum ended the week down 10.3%, Gold ended down 4.88% and Silver ended down 14.88%.  Huh?

The German and French stockmarkets dutifully fell almost 5% over the week. The Italian stock market fell by 4% and the UK market fell about 2.7%. In Asia, the Korean stock market fell by about 5.5 % and the Taiwan market fell by 5%. But the Japanese market barely budged, falling just 0.67% while the New Zealand market rose by more than 2% and the Australian market rose by 1.37%.

So — it was a very odd week. Perhaps the volatility was caused by the US Dollar that rose strongly?  The US Dollar Index rose by 1.75% and was strong against most major currency alternatives. But this is not an adequate explanation as far as BOOM can see.

Some large European banks got hit hard which suggests something seriously amiss there which would be no surprise to most observers. Money laundering rumors were rampant. Yes — apparently some people are shocked to learn that banks may be involved in money laundering. Many of the European bank shares fell by 10 – 12%. Also the large international banks resident in the UK fell hard. HSBC went down 8.2% and Barclays fell by over 6% as did Standard Chartered. The two large Swiss banks fell hard. UBS shares dropped 12.64% while Credit Suisse fell 11.24%. There have been rumors that the two Swiss giants were considering a merger. The large banks in the US were not spared with many big falls. However, Australian bank shares rose very sharply during Friday’s session, suggesting vigorous foreign buying.

BOOM has not yet seen anything approaching an adequate explanation for these large bank share falls right across the globe. And none is expected. The officers in Basel of the Bank for International Settlements probably know the answer but they will be tight lipped as they arrange a solution over the weekend. BOOM is expecting a rebound in bank shares when that happens and suggests that, meanwhile, everyone involved in banking should read last week’s BOOM Editorial on Quantitative Boosting and Electronic Cash.

CHINA ECONOMY INDICATORS UPDATE

BOOM’s primary indicator for China’s economy is still rising strongly. The secondary indicator is still in clear uptrend but is showing signs of weakness over the last 2 weeks.

In economics, things work until they don’t. Until next week …………  Make your own conclusions, do your own research.  BOOM does not offer investment advice.

CLICK HERE FOR PODCASTS:   OUR BRAVE NEW ECONOMIC WORLD

EMAIL: gerry {at} boomfinanceandeconomics.com

Return to the BOOM Main Website –  BOOM Finance and Economics at  http://boomfinanceandeconomics.com/

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HOW MOST MONEY IS CREATED

BANKS CREATE FRESH NEW MONEY OUT OF THIN AIR (but they always need a Borrower to do so)

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A DEPOSIT
BANKS PURCHASE SECURITIES, THEY DON’T MAKE LOANS
BANKS DON’T TAKE DEPOSITS, THEY BORROW YOUR MONEY
Watch this short 15 minutes video and learn as Professor Richard Werner brilliantly explains how the banking system and financial sector really work.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EC0G7pY4wREhttp://

How is Most New Money Created ?

LOANS CREATE DEPOSITS — that is how almost all new money is created in the economy (by commercial banks making loans).

From the Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin Q1 2014    —
“Whenever a bank makes a loan, it simultaneously creates a matching deposit in the borrower’s bank account, thereby creating new money.“Most money in the modern economy is in the form of bank deposits, which are created by commercial banks themselves”.

Youtube Video —  https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2014/q1/money-in-the-modern-economy-an-introduction

and

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2014/q1/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy

Paper:  Money in the Modern Economy  PDF —  CLICK HERE

Quarterly Bulletins Indexhttp://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q1.aspx

Most economists are unaware of this and even ignore the banking & finance sectors in their econometric models.

On 25th April 2017, the central bank of Germany, the Bundesbank, released a statement on this matter —

“In terms of volume, the majority of the money supply is made up of book money, which is created through transactions between banks and domestic customers. Sight deposits are an example of book money: sight deposits are created when a bank settles transactions with a customer, ie it grants a credit, say, or purchases an asset and credits the corresponding amount to the customer’s bank account in return. This means that banks can create book money just by making an accounting entry: according to the Bundesbank’s economists, “this refutes a popular misconception that banks act simply as intermediaries at the time of lending – i.e. that banks can only grant credit using funds placed with them previously as deposits by other customers”. By the same token, excess central bank reserves are not a necessary precondition for a bank to grant credit (and thus create money).

”Reference: https://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/EN/Topics/2017/2017_04_25_how_money_is_created.html

The Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia’s central bank) has also contributed to the issue in a speech by Christopher Kent, the Assistant Governor on September 19th 2018.“…… the vast bulk of broad money consists of bank deposits”“Money can be created …….. when financial intermediaries make loans

“In the first instance, the process of money creation requires a willing borrower.” “It’s also worth emphasizing that the process of money creation is not the result of the actions of any single bank – rather, the banking system as a whole acts to create money.”
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MOLS Denmark

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