BOOM as at 5th April 2020

MEASURING DEATH

There is a website called Deathmeters that uses source data from World Health Organization estimations to list the number of deaths from the top 20 causes in the World during 2020.

It gives the Daily Total for deaths and the Cumulative Total so far this year (to the current date).

There have (likely) been over 2.4 million deaths from Coronary Heart Disease since January 1st this year, over 1.7 million deaths from Stroke, almost one million deaths from Lower Lung Infections (pneumonia) and almost 1 million deaths from Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease. The total for those 4 causes alone is already over 6 million in the last three months.

Deaths so far this year from the following diseases are approaching another 1.5 million — Respiratory cancers, Diabetes and Alzheimer’s Disease.

While HIV/AIDS has killed about 300,000 to today’s date, road accidents, diarrhoeal diseases and Tuberculosis have killed about 380,000 people (each).

Disease and death is a normal part of every day life. It is a veritable sea of uncertainty. But that part of life is generally not well covered by the mainstream media. They go for sensation with the aura of certainty — new cures, new research, new diseases. The political class sees it as a nuisance, a major cost center. They persistently make strenuous efforts to reduce the costs associated with caring for the sick and dying, rarely being seen with sick people in hospitals. Have you ever seen the President of the US at a bedside or the Prime Minister of the UK?

However, we are now faced with an epidemic and the people who have decided to take charge are the journalists and the politicians. They are lost in that sea of uncertainty. They try to render certainty by making pronouncements that may be based on advice from many “experts” who also have little personal experience of fighting disease. We end up with a mess.

Source:  http://deathmeters.info/

Please note that the Daily time stamp used is Eastern European Summer Time.

PROGRESS OF THE EPIDEMIC

There is great uncertainty in measuring the progress of the epidemic. Deaths per Day is by far  the best metric but even it has inherent problems because many can die with the virus but principally from other more serious co-morbid diseases.

However, it appears likely from the currently available statistics on New Cases and Deaths per Day that the peak of the epidemic occurred in China on February 13th. In Italy, it occurred on March 18th. In Germany, it looks like it may have occurred on Friday 3rd April (but it is definitely too early to judge). And in Spain, the numbers suggest March 31st. Switzerland, Belgium, the Netherlands, Austria may have all peaked on March 30th (but it is too early to really tell) and March 24th in South Korea. When they occur, the rollovers in the stats are very clear after a further weeks have passed. The rollovers can only be seen in the rear view mirror.

The numbers are still increasing in the USA, France, the UK, Canada.

The standout is Taiwan with 24 million people and where the peak probably occurred on March 20th. There have only been 5 deaths there. But Hong Kong has only recorded 4 deaths from 7.5 million people while possibly peaking on March 29th.

We must await further statistics before we can call peaks in all nations. Watch for the rollovers, particularly in the critical metric — Deaths per Day (not in Cases).

Some Data Sites —
https://virusncov.com/

https://coronavirus-data.com/      https://ncov2019.live/data

Comparison Graphs: —
https://corona.help/

SPEED THE MONEY

There is little doubt that we are now in an economic disaster. So what should we do?
Gardens need nutrients, they need care and attention but, most critical of all, they need water. Without water, the amount of care and the availability of nutrients will make no difference. The garden will die.
Our economies are like gardens.

Economies need fresh new money to be applied on a regular basis. Fresh new money is like fresh new water to the garden. Why do we need this continuous supply of money? We need it because money is leaving the economy every day as bank loans are paid off. So we must “add water” regularly to maintain the economy at a steady state.

New bank loans can (and do) provide this function in normal periods. But right now, with the Coronavirus threat, the advanced economies of the world need fresh new money injected immediately into their real economies urgently (and not via their financial economies). Banks and loans (via loan applications) are a poor way to get money into the real economy fast. So is QE which is mediated by the central banks buying assets in the asset markets.  These methods are clearly too slow at present as all of the world’s national economies are exposed to huge systemic risk now with economic activity collapsing right in front of our eyes.

QB (Quantitative Boosting) is the answer — for speed — the money flows as one loan to the central bank from the commercial banking sector and then one loan from the central bank to one customer (the Treasury) and the government spends it immediately through its normal expenditure channels. They can instruct the Tax department to spend it by simply sending it straight to the bank accounts of registered tax payers and the Social Security department can spend it by sending it straight to the bank accounts of its welfare recipients. The money can flow in a heartbeat …….. instant liquidity, direct to the people. However, to get real BANG for our bucks, the people have to be encouraged to spend that money as fast as possible. Bingo — economic growth would return just as a garden would respond if it was starved of water and then suddenly watered.

How long will it take for the central bankers, the commercial bankers and the Governments of the world to sit around a table and agree to just two loans — one from the commercial banking sector (as an aggregate) to the central bank and then one to the Treasury?  It is literally a 5 minute meeting.

The problem is this — bankers do not understand sovereign money. It’s anathema to them. They only understand credit money. And QB money is essentially interest free, sovereign, electronic cash. The interest payments are forgiven when they fall due and the principal can be left on the Balance Sheets of the commercial banks and the central banks forever (rolled over at maturity).

SAVE THE PLANET — Read the Link — and send it to your politicians and central bankers. Quantitative Boosting Explained —

https://boomfinanceandeconomics.wordpress.com/2019/12/15/boom-as-at-15th-december-2019/

If you know a central banker — send this on (!)

BE SUITABLY SKEPTICAL

The clinicians in the medical profession and the nursing profession deal with all the (many) epidemics that occur year in year out. They don’t reach out to journalists or politicians for help. They just get on with the job of dealing with all the deaths.  60 Million deaths occur every year on this planet and the vast majority of them are cared for by clinicians, not journalists or politicians.

Unfortunately, the mainstream media has decided that disease is a great way to scare people. They manufacture fear these days as their major business strategy because that boosts their audience, impact and advertising revenues. They have also decided that they want to set the agendas and force politicians to act as per their instructions. Thus, in effect, they have now seized power and our democracies no longer exist as they once did. The journalists are in control, unelected and certain of their virtue. And the politicians jump to their tunes.

The journalists seek disease experts to help them manufacture fear. They don’t talk to clinicians who are much too busy to answer their calls. They tend to ask university professors and academics and then brand them as “experts”, even though these people often do not treat actual patients.  Makes sense?

One such media source and government adviser who has had a huge influence on the world’s reaction to the Coronavirus is not a doctor of medicine and has never had to take personal responsibility for even one sick patient.  He is a theoretical physicist by training who has moved into the world of disease, a theoretician who makes predictions. Some media outlets are now referring to him as “the scientist”, presumably to give an aura of certainty to the predictions. Would you attend a physicist if you were seriously ill?

Another commonly quoted expert is a person who has made Billions of Dollars of wealth from licensing computer software. For some reason, the media prefer to listen to him and promote his predictions rather than listen to any clinicians at the coal face of disease.

The “scientist” reportedly made a forecast in mid February of 400,000 “possible” deaths in the UK. To today’s date, almost 7 weeks later, there are about 4,300 deaths in the UK attributed to the new Coronavirus and many of those may well have died from other major, coincidental diseases. If the UK stats roll over here, he may be out by a factor of 100. The economy will have been destroyed and the rights of its citizens trampled into the dust for a handful of deaths.

THIS COULD HAPPEN, THAT COULD HAPPEN

It is a hugely complex, uncertain (and possibly unwise) process to calculate in advance with any degree of certainty how many people will get infected by a new Coronavirus but show no symptoms, how many will have minimal symptoms, how many will suffer severe symptoms and how many will die from the virus and not with it. But many of these media “experts” are willing to make such predictions. You can be sure that the media will report the most outrageous predictions first and give them the most prominence. The much forgotten climate change debate has seen very similar dynamics.

The word “could” is becoming more commonly used in news broadcasts. This could happen. That could happen. The news review should be about reporting what has happened, not about what might happen or could happen.

SAVE THE PLANET — Read the Link — and send it to your politicians and central bankers. Quantitative Boosting Explained 
https://boomfinanceandeconomics.wordpress.com/2019/12/15/boom-as-at-15th-december-2019/
In economics, things work until they don’t. Until next week …………  Make your own conclusions, do your own research.  BOOM does not offer investment advice.


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EMAIL: gerry {at} boomfinanceandeconomics.com

Return to the BOOM Main Website –  BOOM Finance and Economics at  http://boomfinanceandeconomics.com/

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HOW MOST MONEY IS CREATED

BANKS CREATE FRESH NEW MONEY OUT OF THIN AIR (but they always need a Borrower to do so)

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A DEPOSIT
BANKS PURCHASE SECURITIES, THEY DON’T MAKE LOANS

BANKS DON’T TAKE DEPOSITS, THEY BORROW YOUR MONEY
Watch this short 15 minutes video and learn as Professor Richard Werner brilliantly explains how the banking system and financial sector really work.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EC0G7pY4wREhttp://

How is Most New Money Created ?

LOANS CREATE DEPOSITS — that is how almost all new money is created in the economy (by commercial banks making loans).

From the Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin Q1 2014    —
“Whenever a bank makes a loan, it simultaneously creates a matching deposit in the borrower’s bank account, thereby creating new money.

“Most money in the modern economy is in the form of bank deposits, which are created by commercial banks themselves”.

Most economists are unaware of this and even ignore the banking & finance sectors in their econometric models.

On 25th April 2017, the central bank of Germany, the Bundesbank, released a statement on this matter —

“In terms of volume, the majority of the money supply is made up of book money, which is created through transactions between banks and domestic customers. Sight deposits are an example of book money: sight deposits are created when a bank settles transactions with a customer, ie it grants a credit, say, or purchases an asset and credits the corresponding amount to the customer’s bank account in return. This means that banks can create book money just by making an accounting entry: according to the Bundesbank’s economists, “this refutes a popular misconception that banks act simply as intermediaries at the time of lending – i.e. that banks can only grant credit using funds placed with them previously as deposits by other customers”. By the same token, excess central bank reserves are not a necessary precondition for a bank to grant credit (and thus create money).”

The Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia’s central bank) has also contributed to the issue in a speech by Christopher Kent, the Assistant Governor on September 19th 2018.
“…… the vast bulk of broad money consists of bank deposits”
“Money can be created …….. when financial intermediaries make loans
“In the first instance, the process of money creation requires a willing borrower.”
“It’s also worth emphasizing that the process of money creation is not the result of the actions of any single bank – rather, the banking system as a whole acts to create money.”
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MOLS Denmark

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