BOOM as at 6th January 2019

NUCLEAR POWER
INCONVENIENT TRUTHS

BOOM recently attended a lecture in a sun-drenched nation on alternative energy generation where the speaker proudly announced to a converted, cheering crowd that nuclear energy is dead and construction of new plants is in decline. BOOM enjoyed the enthusiasm of the audience but suspected that these “facts” were possibly misleading or false so it was time to check the facts.

Currently, 31 countries produce electricity from 450 nuclear power plants. These provide over 10% of the world’s electricity. For example, in regard to currently operational nuclear reactors, Argentina has 3, Belgium has 7, Canada has 19, China has 44 (with 45 more planned and 13 under construction), Czech Republic has 6, France has 58, Germany has 7, India has 22 (with 20 more planned and 7 under construction), Japan has 39 (many operationally suspended since Fukishima accident), Pakistan has 5, Russia has 36, South Korea has 24, Spain has 7, Sweden has 8, Switzerland has 5, Ukraine has 15, United Kingdom has 15 and the United States has 98. You read that right — the US has 98 operating nuclear reactors for electricity generation.

The greatest new build activity is occurring in Asian countries like South Korea, India and China. In total, in 16 countries, 55 nuclear power plants are under construction. The Russians are now building the 56th plant in Turkey. They are also building plants in Egypt, Jordan, India and may soon construct up to 12 new plants in Saudi Arabia.

About 150 nuclear power reactors with a total gross capacity of about 160,000 MWe are on order or planned, and about 300 more are proposed. In many of those nations, the sun does not shine sufficiently to support an advanced industrialized economy with solar energy. Wind is clearly not sufficient either. And currently we have totally inadequate electricity storage solutions.

Nuclear power plants embody huge amounts of energy during construction and de-commissioning but they can produce power for approximately 50 years. By comparison, solar panels have to be replaced every 20 years (on average) and windmills have to be replaced every 15 years (on average). And they need a massive industrialized base to co-exist so that they can be manufactured. They are cheaper to construct but they do not produce power 24 hours a day, 365 days a year.

All of these facts are easily checked — http://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/plans-for-new-reactors-worldwide.aspx

COAL FIRED POWER
INCONVENIENT FACTS

Hundreds of new coal-fired power plants will soon be added in China. New construction is equivalent to the entire US coal generated power sector. New satellite images show that, rather than cancelling unneeded coal plants, China has just rescheduled them. The photos show that construction is continuing.

Endcoal.org has many facts well presented on power stations of 30MW or larger. It shows clearly that 438 new coal fired power stations are planned world wide and there are 2,440 power stations currently operational. The satellite images can be seen here.

Reference: Endcoal.org Tsunami Warning — https://endcoal.org/2018/09/tsunami-warning/

At carbonbrief.org, there is also abundant information. The massive surge in Chinese coal fired power capacity since 2006 is truly staggering when seen in graphical form.

Reference: https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-power-plants

NEW ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES

BOOM has become aware of an electrical storage solution that can be easily slotted into an existing coal fired power plant and that can transform the plant into a highly responsive and fuel efficient asset, with the following features available:

Ultra low cost grid-scale energy storage
Increased plant responsiveness and efficiency
Low cost conversion from low efficiency coal to high efficiency natural gas

Grid scale electricity storage is the key to a more efficient electricity grid so BOOM is enthusiastic about this prospect. Lithium batteries cannot fulfill this role. More in future Editorials.

BOOM has also become aware of a technology to repair our damaged oceans and simultaneously create huge carbon sinks. This technology is relatively cheap to get up and running. Many other benefits also accrue from this technological leap. More to follow in future Editorials.

PARIS AGREEMENT TARGETS

BOOM suspects that the Paris Climate Agreement Targets have been purposely designed for failure. The two biggest population nations, China and India have been effectively excluded from participating in full until 2030. The US has withdrawn. So the world’s two biggest populations and the world’s two biggest economies will effectively not take part. The US and China alone represent 40% of total global carbon dioxide emissions. Most of the Paris Agreement consists of “promises” or aims and not firm commitments from nations.

So, one must ask the following questions — who designed the targets and why were they designed for failure?

TRUMP NOT SO SURE ABOUT SYRIA

“You can always count on Americans to do the right thing – after they’ve tried everything else.” Winston Churchill

Trump is now backtracking on the withdrawal of US troops from Syria. Clearly, someone has explained that the Kurds will be left in an exposed situation if this happens quickly. Donald has listened and moderated his message on the US withdrawal.

Last week, BOOM said “The withdrawal from Syria of US Troops is another major positive development going into 2019 ………. If this all takes place quickly, BOOM expects the recent volatility in Oil prices to end.”

The operative word there was “if”. It didn’t take long for the circumstances to change.

Repeat: “You can always count on Americans to do the right thing – after they’ve tried everything else.” Winston Churchill

US JOBS UP 312,000

Nonfarm payrolls in the US increased by 312,000 in December, easily topping all forecasts, after an upwardly revised 176,000 gain the prior month, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed last Friday. Nonfarm payroll employment includes goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees. Such a massive surge upwards from the previous month suggests that the number is false. Time will tell.

Average hourly earnings rose 3.2 percent from a year earlier, more than projected and matching the fastest pace since 2009. Meanwhile, the jobless rate rose from a five-decade low to 3.9 percent, reflecting more people actively seeking work. These numbers are often “revised” up and down in following months. BOOM will look closely at the revisions coming in future months.

The US stock market dutifully surged upwards after the release of these figures on Friday with the Dow Index rising 3.3%, the NASDAQ Index rising 4.26%.

THE FED WILL BE PATIENT

On Friday, another event triggered optimism in the US financial markets. The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the U.S. central bank can now be patient about further interest rate rises and will wait to see how conflicting signals from the market and the economy resolve themselves.

This is a huge admission of defeat. They clearly can’t interpret accurately what is happening inside the US economy at present. Caution seems the wisest course so BOOM applauds Powell’s patience.

APPLE CRUNCHED

Apple shares are down almost 35% since early October. On Thursday, they dropped almost 10% in one trading session in New York. On Wednesday, the iPhone maker said it expected revenue of about US $ 84 Billion for the last three months of 2018, down from a forecast of at least US $ 89 Billion.

That $ 5 Billion drop in sales could translate to a $ 20 Billion annualized drop over the next 12 months if demand continues to fall. The Chinese can easily switch to Android phones made in China.

Donald Trump said that “a trade war is easy to win” for the US. BOOM is not so sure.

In economics, things work until they don’t.  Until next week …………  Make your own conclusions, do your own research.  BOOM does not offer investment advice.

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Return to the BOOM Main Website –  BOOM Finance and Economics at  http://boomfinanceandeconomics.com/

EMAIL: gerry [@] boomfinanceandeconomics.com

PRICE PULSE DOMINANCE CHANGES DURING LAST WEEK Ended 6th January 2019:

1. RWR (US Real Estate REIT Fund) — Changed to NO Arrow Dominant
2. GOLD PRICE in USD —Changed to UP Arrow Dominant

rwr

gold

NOTE — RED ARROWS INDICATE BOOM PRICE PULSE DOMINANCE in the present moment (as indicated by the date of the chart and taking into account the 3 year time frame shown).  The charts are now arranged in PRICE PULSE RED ARROW DOMINANCE.    NOTE: All Charts are WEEKLY Charts over the last 3 YEARS time frame.  Arrows indicate PAST price action (not future).  No predictions are implied from past action.

Comments refer to past PRICE PULSE (Red Arrow DOMINANCE) over the last 3 years, the week ended 6th January 2019.  You can RIGHT CLICK a chart and OPEN in a New Tab.  Make your own conclusions, do your own research. BOOM does not offer investment advice. 

PLEASE NOTE — Many charts are ETF’s from NY Market  (not the base commodity or currency etc). The NY Stock Code is in the Top Left Hand Corner of each chart.
Charts are produced from http://www.stockcharts.com

Return to the BOOM Main Website –  BOOM Finance and Economics at  http://boomfinanceandeconomics.com/

PRICE PULSE RISING — (RED ARROW UP DOMINANCE)

# GOLD PRICE in USD —Changed to UP Arrow Dominant
# US LONG BOND PRICE (TLT) — UP Arrow Dominant
# AGGREGATE US BOND PRICES (BND) — UP Arrow Dominant
# GOLD PRICE (in Aus Dollars) — UP Arrow Dominant
# INDIAN STOCKS — UP Arrow Dominant
# NATURAL GAS (SPOT PRICE) — UP Arrow Dominant
# BRAZIL STOCK INDEX — UP Arrow Dominant
# PALLADIUM PRICE — UP Arrow Dominant
# ARGENTINA STOCKS — UP Arrow Dominant
# US INFLATION PROTECTED BOND PRICES — UP Arrow Dominant
# US UTILITIES STOCKS — UP Arrow Dominant
# VALE STOCK (Iron Ore) — UP Arrow Dominant
# US 3 MTH T BILL YIELD — UP Arrow Dominant
# LIBOR — UP Arrow Dominant

PRICE PULSE FALLING — (RED ARROW DOWN DOMINANCE)

# SWISS STOCKS — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# US DOW STOCK INDEX — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# US BIOTECHNOLOGY INDEX — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# JAPAN STOCKS — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# WEST TEXAS OIL PRICE — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# US TRANSPORT INDEX — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# US INSIDER SENTIMENT (KNOW) — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# SOIL (POTASH ETF) — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# QUAL (Quality ETF) — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# MTUM (Momentum ETF) — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# RUSSELL 2000 INDEX — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# TRIM TABS US FLOAT (TTAC) — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# US HIGH GRADE CORP BONDS (LQD) — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# EMERGING MARKETS ETF (EEM) — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# FINANCIAL SECTOR ETF (XLF) — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# US KBW BANK INDEX — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# NASDAQ COMP INDEX — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# US JUNK BOND PRICES — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# COMMODITIES INDEX (USCI) — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# SWISS FRANC (AGAINST $US) — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# FRANCE STOCKS — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# AUSSIE ALL ORDS INDEX — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# THAI SETI INDEX — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# GERMAN DAX — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# TAIWAN STOCKS — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# FVL — VALUE LINE — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# YEN (AGAINST $US) — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# DENMARK STOCKS — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# COAL ETF (KOL) — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# TED SPREAD — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# COPPER PRICE — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# INDUSTRIAL METALS ETF (DBB) — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# YUAN (AGAINST USD) ETF — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# HANG SENG — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# SOUTH KOREA STOCKS — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# SINGAPORE STOCKS — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# AUSSIE DOLLAR AGAINST US DOLLAR — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# CANADIAN DOLLAR AGAINST USD — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# BRITISH POUND AGAINST USD — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# EURO (AGAINST $US) — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# NOMURA HOLDINGS — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# PLATINUM PRICE — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# SHANGHAI STOCKS — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# BITCOIN INDEX $NYXBT — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# DEUTSCHE BANK SHARES — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# FOOD INPUT PRICES (DBA) — DOWN Arrow Dominant
# EURODOLLAR INDEX ($XED) — DOWN Arrow Dominant

PRICE PULSE UNCERTAIN —  NON-DOMINANCE OF RED ARROW –

# RWR (US Real Estate REIT Fund) — Changed to NO Arrow Dominant
# RUSSIAN RTSI STOCK INDEX — NO Arrow Dominant

Disclaimer: All content is presented for educational and/or entertainment purposes only. Under no circumstances should it be mistaken for professional investment advice, nor is it at all intended to be taken as such. The commentary and other contents simply reflect the opinion of the authors alone on the current and future status of the markets and various economies. It is subject to error and change without notice.The presence of a link to a website does not indicate approval or endorsement of that web site or any services, products, or opinions that may be offered by them.

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation to buy or sell any securities nor investments. Do NOT ever purchase any security or investment without doing your own and sufficient research.  Neither BOOM Finance and Economics.com nor any of its principals or contributors are under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. The principals and related parties may at times have positions in the securities or investments referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities and investments while this site is live. The analysis contained is based on both technical and fundamental research.

Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

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